Scenarios: 2017 Race to Dubai Champion

At the conclusion of the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai, the winner of the season-long Race to Dubai will be crowned, along with the champion of the season’s final tournament.

Unlike other major professional golf tours, with convoluted resets and scenarios, the European Tour’s point system is pretty simple: The golfer who compiles the most points (i.e. money) during the season, wins.

So this week at Jumeirah Golf Estates, there will be no hard-to-follow scenario sheets, as only the top-three ranked players in the standings – Tommy Fleetwood (1), Justin Rose (2) and Sergio Garcia (3) – have a mathematical chance to capture the massive trophy, and the accompanying $1 million prize.

Here’s a look at how the different scenarios have to play out for each of the three golfers to win the European Tour’s season-long points title.

1. TOMMY FLEETWOOD

  • Win: With a first-place finish, Fleetwood would win the Race to Dubai crown.
  • Top 5: With a Top 5 finish, Fleetwood would win, as long as Rose doesn’t finish ahead.
  • Top 10: With a Top 10 finish, Fleetwood would win, as long as Rose doesn’t finish in the Top 5.
  • Outside Top 10: With a finish out of the Top 10, Fleetwood would still win as long as Rose doesn’t finish in the Top 5 OR Garcia doesn’t win.

Race to Dubai: No. 1
RTD Points: 4,235,987
Probability of Winning: 73%
Last Five: T10, T23, T20, T6, T25
Official World Golf Rank: No. 19


2. JUSTIN ROSE

  1. Win: With a first-place finish, Rose would win the Race to Dubai crown.
  2. Top 5: With a Top 5 finish, Rose would win, as long as Fleetwood doesn’t tie or finish ahead.
  3. Top 10: Rose can not win with anything worse than a Top 5.

Race to Dubai: No. 2
RTD Points: 3,979,250 (-257k)
Probability of Winning: 24%
Last Five: 1, 1, T10, T2, T10
Official World Golf Rank: No. 6


3. SERGIO GARCIA

  1. Win: With a first place finish, Garcia would still need Fleetwood to finish outside the Top 10 AND Rose to finish worse than solo fourth.
  2. Top 5: Garcia can not win with anything worse than a win.

Race to Dubai: No. 3
RTD Points: 3,184,582 (-1.05m)
Probability of Winning: 4%
Last Five: 1, T30, MC, T10, T12
Official World Golf Rank: No. 11


Credits: Getty Images, European Tour Media


Jordan Thomas

Jordan Thomas is a Pro Golf Weekly producer and contributor. He is mostly a degenerate gambler, making his way through college. But when not losing money at Draft Kings and Brovado, Jordan performs research, crunches numbers, compiles content, and writes quick-hit posts.

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